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Ending U.S. Protections for Salvadorans can turn El Salvador into a Failed State

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The Trump administration's decision to end immigration protections for hundreds of thousands of Salvadoransliving in the United States will have a crushing impact on the lives of people who have called America their home for more than a decade, if not longer. But the reverberations of the move to end the program, known as Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, will also have a devastating effect on El Salvador, the tiny Central American country that has struggled to stay afloat in relentlessly stormy socioeconomic and geopolitical conditions. The end of TPScould even gradually turn El Salvador into a failed state, a development that would create new troubles for the United States.

In its announcement terminating TPS (https://www.dhs.gov/news/2018/01/08/secretary-homeland-security-kirstjen-m-nielsen-announcement-temporary-protected) this week, which has been in place since a series of earthquakes in El Salvador in 2001, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security said that "the original conditions caused by the 2001 earthquakes no longer exist." The status has been renewable every 18 months since it was granted by the George W. Bush administration. As many as 250,000 Salvadorans have been living and working legally in the U.S. under TPS, many having arrived long before the program started. In addition, they are parents to an estimated 193,000 children who are U.S. citizens.

The 2001 earthquakes were just one of the many misfortunes afflicting El Salvador. For the affected individuals, who are now required to leave by 2019, the Trump administration's decision is a calamity, not only because of the total disruption to their lives, but also because it forces them to move back to a chaotic country many of them barely know, where jobs are scarce and security is elusive.

The change in U.S. policy also creates a potential cascade of overwhelming new problems for El Salvador, adding to a situation already so untenable that Salvadorans keep leaving the country in droves.

The state of just 6 million people suffered its first great modern-day disaster during the height of the Cold War, when its military-led government, backed by the U.S., fought a brutal civil war against leftist guerrillas. That war raged from 1980 to 1992, killing more than 70,000 and sending thousands more into exile, mostly to the United States.

The war was destructive, but its end brought new problems. When young Salvadorans arrived in low-income neighborhoods in Los Angeles, they found the streets controlled by Mexican and African-American gangs. To protect themselves, they started their own gangs. The most notable among them is the Mara Salvatruchas, or MS-13. After the civil war ended, American authorities deported gang members hardened by prison terms back to El Salvador, where the gangs put their violent methods into play in places where local authorities were even less able to control them.

Before long, MS-13 and its main rival, the 18th Street Gang -- also known as Calle 18 and Barrio 18 -- extended their tentacles throughout El Salvador and across Central America. They helped turn the country and the region into one of the world's most crime-ridden areas, with murder rates spiking and governments struggling to regain the upper hand.

Meanwhile, Salvadorans in the U.S. helped sustain their families by sending much of their income back home. That money not only helped feed, clothe and house people in impoverished El Salvador; it also helped create small businesses and educate the population. That's precisely the kind of investment that stabilizes a country and helps keep its citizens from emigrating.

In the years since TPS was first granted, El Salvador has become one of the murder capitals of the world, with 60 murders for every 100,000 people in 2017. The murders and other crimes that are rampant in El Salvador have crippled the economy; the Central Bank says violence costs El Salvador billions each year (https://www.laprensagrafica.com/economia/BCR-violencia-cuesta-millones-a-EI-Salvador-20151104-0139.html). The gangs have roots in almost every municipality, making life dangerous and business unprofitable.

Some of the worst economic damage is the widespread practice of extortion, which analysts say afflicts 70 percent of all businesses. Those who refuse to pay can see their families and employees murdered. It's no surprise hundreds of Salvadorans leave the country every day.

The depth of despair became visible when thousands of unaccompanied children from Central America began turning up at U.S. borders (https://www.npr.org/2016/07/28/483391731/halt-on-juvenile-immigrant-visa-leaves-thousands-in-limbo) in 2012. More than 120,000 children made the journey between 2014 and 2016. Authorities did not know how many died attempting the trip.

While the U.S. sends a paltry $88 million in aid to El Salvador -- an effort to stem the tide of migration -- the one main source of economic stimulus is the sustenance in the form of remittances from the Salvadoran diaspora (http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/08/news/economy/ei-saivador-remittances/index.html).

Salvadorans in the United States sent more than $4.5 billion (https://www.voanews.com/aAemittances-to-ei-saivador-surge-to-record-high-in-2016/3689072.html) to their home country in 2016, and the number was likely higher last year. That is a much larger rate of contribution per capita than similar countries, and an indispensable lifeline to a struggling nation. The funds equal almost 20 percent of the country's GDP, and if one takes into account the full economic impact of the remittances, it is a far greater proportion of economic activity.

The money has a huge social impact, allowing the relatives of migrants to stay home, paying for their education and helping start businesses.

The end of TPS means the people providing these remittances will either have to go home -- to a depressed job market and extortion attempts from gang members who think all those who come from America bring vast savings with them -- or choose to stay in the U.S., going underground for fear of deportation. That would, of course, reduce their earnings potential and their ability to funnel needed money home.

Cutting off cash to El Salvador will inevitably lower economic activity, create more poverty, more unemployment, more gang activity and more incentives to leave. It will create new macroeconomic problems and social disruption in an already-struggling country.

The Trump administration justified its decision claiming that the conditions that warranted TPS no longer exist. The truth is that conditions remain dismal, and the move was more likely motivated by a desire to reduce the number of immigrants under the banner of "America First," at a disastrous cost for El Salvador and, eventually perhaps, a steep one for the United States.

Salvadorans in the United States sent more than $4.5 billion to their home country in 2016, and the number was likely higher last year.

Salvadoran immigrants Diana Paredes, left, and Isabel Barrera react at a news conference following an announcement on Temporary Protected Status for nationals of El Salvador, Los Angeles, Jan. 8, 2018 (AP photo by Damian Dovarganes).

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By Frida Ghitis

DMU Timestamp: February 07, 2020 23:04





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